It’s one of those bottom vs. top fixtures (we’re in 17th, they’re in 2nd) but we’re still expecting the upset, despite a ten year hex in the way. Derbies are always special and when you play matches like these, you forget about everything else, such as table position and the fact that you’re eliminated from the Champions League (grrr). Just sit back, grab a cold one, and enjoy. And yell loudly at the television set.

Atletico, recently living up to their cruel “El Pupas” monicker, have supposedly found their ground in the match against Chelsea. They played like they hadn’t played this season before, with a defense that was effective for 82 minutes and a Kun Aguero performance to remember. Did I mention that he was injured also? Sure, it was a Champions League match and some teams perform above and beyond, but you definitely know that Quique is expecting no less tomorrow. For both the ascension up the table, and for the win against the eternal rival.

The last time Atletico defeated Real was in the 1999/2000 season. In other words, way too long. If they don’t win tomorrow, that’s an entire damn decade of not winning a derby. There were some draw matches in between, and there were still many excellent matches despite them ending 1-1, but not one victory. However, we must forget about the numbers and move on from there.

I’m a huge believe that the location of matches are important, but unfortunately, Atletico hasn’t benefited much when playing this derby at home. Let me remind you what happened the last two times the derby took place at the Calderon. First minute goals. Two years ago, it was Raul and last year it was Van Nistelrooy. I can’t explain why this happened, maybe it was a Javier Aguirre thing, but it’s very obvious: overconfidence. Hell, I believe that fat Ronaldo pulled this first-minute goal thing about 4 years ago. Goddammit.

It may be a psychological factor as to why Atletico struggles to win these matches. Like I mentioned before, I’m excited for this match despite knowing that Real has the superior record. I’m not alone; the team gets excited too, and goes full out during these matches, which can be bad if you’re not careful. Last season during the first derby, Simao equalized near the end of the match and next thing you know, Heitinga fouled Drenthe in the box and Higuain slotted in the penalty. Game over. Overexcitement and hastiness being the downfall once again.

That’s why Atletico did so well in the derby at the Bernabeu last season. Abel Resino and the squad knew that if they were the team with all the bite, they would stand a chance at winning the match. And what a match that was. The ball hit crossbar after crossbar, then a solid Diego Forlan goal, all to be cancelled out by a Huntelaar equalizer and a 1-1 result that should have been much more for us. It wasn’t a win, but still a match to remember. For most of the match, we scared them, and that’s what we needed to do in order to stand a chance at winning.

Asenjo: This sucks man. Why do we have to pose?
Iker: Kid, do you know what sex is?
Asenjo: Umm what the hell, Iker?
Iker: Huhuh sorry kid I’m a little tipsy
Both: Huhuhuhuh

This time around, things are definitely more different. This new edition of Real Madrid, who in correlation to how much they spent this summer on players, are technically “failing” for not being the biggest and baddest football team in the world right now. They lost to that 3rd division team, lost to AC Milan at home, but are still a dangerous team nonetheless. Thank goodness they don’t have Cristiano Ronaldo available, because Kaka is scary enough. And many of Atletico’s old derby bogeymen (Raul, Higuain, Nistelrooy) will probably make an appearance. On paper, we’re facing an even better squad than last year, and plenty of experience on their squad as well. Guti Maricón didn’t make the squad, but I doubt that’ll make a difference anyway.

And how would you compare the new Real Madrid to the new Atletico? No comparison, Real is miles ahead in many departments except the attack. This current Atletico is a bit hurt from the bad outcome of the season so far, but they are working hard on improving from there. That’s Quique’s priority right now, not only to improve results, but to work with what the team has and find a method of working that will help us get back to normal ways. His formula against Chelsea worked, and it may work again tomorrow. Don’t let the standings and the numbers fool you. We still have a chance at winning.

The lineup:

This is the 99% official lineup that will play tomorrow:

Asenjo
Perea, Pablo, Ujfalusi, A. Lopez
Reyes, Cleber, R. Garcia, Simao
Aguero, Forlan

Not too many changes from the Chelsea match, with Ujfalusi and R. Garcia in the lineup. Juanito is injured and Assuncao is suspended from yellow card accumulation. Reyes’ performance on Tuesday seems to have been good enough to earn him a start against his former club. Aguero still has a bit of a groin problem, but he’s fit enough to start anyway (he scored the brace against Chelsea with the same exact problem!). Asenjo is once again the starting keeper, and the rest of the lineup is familiar to us all.

So the only thing I ask of the squad is not to fight against the ten year hex, but to just go out there and win the match.

AUPA ATLETI!

Atleti have had a bad start to the season that the last team I’d want to see them face right now is a team like Chelsea. When we’re in a crisis, our saving grace is being able to defeat small teams and slowly get our momentum back. In this scenario, Atletico is fresh off of getting crushed by a semi-small club and doesn’t seem too close to be gaining any momentum. The morale is quite low, which is why we need the miracle!

Us Atletico Madrid fans forgot what we were getting ourselves into when we kept on hoping that the team qualify for the Champions League. It hasn’t been easy witnessing the team struggle through the beginning of the season, especially in this competition. Not always do we have a season like last year’s, which probably looked average from the usual outsider (because of all the embarrassing losses) but was actually excellent in certain aspects. The team’s performance in the CL is one of those aspects. We managed two 1-1 draws against a Liverpool team that gives their all in this competition, and beat the hell out of PSV twice and beat Marseille. There was so much controversy after the first Marseille match and we ended up being more hated by some fans. I personally loved it.

This time around, we couldn’t even win the first match at home against the easiest team in the group. The upward walk up the mountain stalled and in the previous matchday after a solid 75 minutes at the Stadio Dragao, Porto finally racked up the goals and shut us out 2-0. Now we go into this match with only one point, tied with APOEL and behind Porto’s 3 and Chelsea’s 6. Mathematically we’re still in this but before anything, we need to win some matches. Win win win. That’s the only solution. This is why we can’t afford to be in a crisis any more. Whatever the deal is with the team, the players being unmotivated or Resino’s tactics falling flat, it has to stop for the sake of us progressing and moving up the group standings.

This match will be special for Diego Forlán because one of his bright moments with Man United was a last minute goal against Chelsea that helped the Red Devils win the Premier League in 2002/03 (I cannot find this video, so if someone can find it, please share). He’ll be glad to return to English soil once again, and this time with the right size spikes on his cleats (I hope you all got that). You can read an interview with Forlan on ESPN here. Dammit he is so awesome.

Chelsea

I won’t bore anybody with numbers because numbers are stupid. Pretty much, the past three years, Chelsea did no worse than reach the semi finals in the Champions League. What this has to do with the current group stage is irrelevant, but I’m just trying to explain how good they are in this competition.

Last season, they hiccupped quite a bit in the group stage, losing away to Roma and drawing at home to CFR Cluj, mostly because Scolari is an idiot. This time, European mastermind Carlo Ancelotti is under the helm at Stamford Bridge. The reason for his appointment is obvious: Roman Abramovic wants his hands on the European Cup. Who else would be as fit to do it than a two-time winner of the trophy?

So far into this campaign, Chelsea has churned out two 1-0 victories, one home to Porto and one away to APOEL. Not quite the convincing victories, but results are results and  they are certainly going into the next round. They’ll go into this match with plenty of confidence, and will definitely not concede easily. Their defense, led by John Terry, doesn’t concede easily, as shown last season when Barca couldn’t break through until the very last minute. Don’t even mind the 4-4 against Liverpool. That game was just ridiculous. If I saw that match while tripping on acid I probably wouldn’t be alive right now. ANYWAYS. Chelsea is simply ridiculous so it won’t be easy. Simple as that.

The thing about Champions League matches is that they are always special, so I’m looking forward to the game no matter what. When the game starts, all that we supporters should do is obvious: stand behind the team and root til the end. Who knows, if Rubin Kazan could defeat Barca’s A team at home, anything can happen. This is still a game, so the last thing I want to do right now is eat my words if I say that Atletico will lose tomorrow. I’ll just watch while biting my nails off during the match.

-

Carlo Ancelotti:

Abel Resino:

Diego Forlán

ROSTER:

PORTEROS
1 Asenjo.
43 De Gea.

DEFENSAS
3 Antonio López.
16 Juanito.
17 Ujfalusi.
18 Álvaro Domínguez.
21 Perea.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
8 Raúl García.
9 Jurado.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
19 Reyes.
20 Simão.
23 Cléber Santana.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

-

Enjoy.

AUPA ATLETI!

Random Atlético trivia: Diego Forlán’s nickname is “Cacha” which is what his teammates call him often.

more trivia: Kun Aguero’s favorite website is Youtube.

They have a tried and true footballing philosophy, and will play the same pretty 4-3-3 football as always. We have a boring and usually ineffective 4-4-2 and an insane rotation policy. They are also at home. We don’t even have our starting goalkeeper available. Our defense is as bad as ever. Forlán and Aguero could be doing a little better. Pretty much, we are screwed.

Last year’s Barça vs Atlético matches were a delight to watch, minus the fact that we lost 3 out of 4 of them, and that they killed us 6-1 in the first match at home. In total they scored 14 goals against us last season. 14 goals! Yeah, we won that thriller at the Vicente Calderón in February, but they still walked all over us for the entire part of the earlier season. To be fair, we were amidst a little crisis each time they played us, and once we were up and running we were finally able to defeat them.

The thing is, we’re kind of in a crisis right now. Excluding the Champions League qualification matches, we haven’t won a match this season yet. We could not defeat a 10 man Racing Santander at home, I don’t know what that says about our team other than that we’re sucking ass. Whatever is wrong with our team, it absolutely has to stop soon. Somewhere.

It could be the fault of the directors board, by failing to make quality signings and barely strengthening our squad. By the way, we’re 120 million in debt if that has to do with anything (why we stupidly sold Heitinga, for example). Or, it could be the fault of Abel Resino’s poor tactics that have suddenly become flat and outdated over the summer period. There simply is not enough fire in this team. It’s so bad that we couldn’t defeat APOEL at home in the Champions League, and Atlético would have won that match 4-0 had it been played in 08/09. Something absolutely is not right.

I don’t have to talk about Barça. A bunch of you reading this post are Barça fans anyway, so I’ll salvage writing about them. I’ll just say that I’m most worried about Xavi and Messi, who are delightful to watch and not so delightful to our mediocre defense. Even in that one victory we had over them last season, Barça still put three past us. I don’t see how it’s possible to keep a clean sheet against them even now. Pablo vs Messi? Juanito vs Ibrahimovic? Get outta here.

I don’t care how much the Barça players and the king of modesty Guardiola praise our team. They think of us as chumps. Why else would they have lost the last match we played? Because they got incredibly overconfident and had no response to our killer comeback. They are slightly more aware of us now, and once had a hard on for Diego Forlan early in the summer, but they are still secretly expecting to walk all over us.

Don’t even mind the comments by our goalkeeper Roberto, who claimed that the team is so confident that he expects a 0-2 or 0-3 victory over Barcelona. The Atlético press is showered with statements by our team about how they are confident going to the Camp Nou tomorrow. That’s good and all, but the moment Barça begins playing their pretty “pam pam” football and Messi figures out how to slice through our defense, how is anybody supposed to remain confident? It’s going to be very hard for the team not to get scared.

Don’t get me wrong, I have confidence. We have a great team after all. But we are entering a difficult scenario during a difficult time. I can’t predict anything but a Barça victory right now. We need to be realistic.

I’m hoping to eat my words of this entire post. We’re still in for a great game.

Roster:

PORTEROS
13 Roberto.
43 De Gea.

DEFENSAS
2 Valera.
3 Antonio López.
16 Juanito.
17 Ujfalusi.
21 Perea.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
9 Jurado.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
19 Reyes.
20 Simão.
23 Cléber Santana.
28 Koke.
49 Keko.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

La Liga maybe commence a little less than two weeks from now, but I believe that the season starts tomorrow, and in the worst possible fashion: in a critical game that could decide whether or not we’ll be in the Champions League this season. How lovely.

Despite me raving all of last season over how our objective was to at least land fourth place and get into the Champions League, I didn’t bother to remember that fourth place meant having to take on another powerhouse. And I didn’t know that due to the UEFA’s non champions path, we would take on an even harder team than usual. That could have been us in Celtic’s shoes taking on Arsenal!

We aren’t new to this scenario. Last year, we took on Schalke 04 in the 3rd round qualifier. Schalke was a Champions League quarterfinalist from the previous season, and after a 1-0 loss at Gelsenkirchen we ended up destroying them 4-0 on the return leg. Schalke later ended up imploding and landing in 8th place in the Bundesliga that season.

Will this happen to Panathinaikos? I hope not, I actually wish them well, but I obviously still don’t want them to beat us. They are in a similar position as us, working hard all season to get into the Champions League while actually faring well in that same exact tournament (and I’m happy that they defeated Inter – twice). The Champions League was in their plans all season just like us, and both of us need everything that comes with playing in the Champions League: the prestige, the boost in revenues, the experience, etc.

The last time we played them, we won 2-1 at the Vicente Calderon, back in the 07/08 UEFA Cup. I won’t use this result as a basis for tomorrow, because both teams are much different than back then, and this first leg is in Athens.

The advantage they will have tomorrow is obvious: their fans and stadium. Just check this out:

Intimidating enough? Meh, we’ll be fine. The Spanish press hasn’t been referring to the Olympic Stadium as “Greek Inferno” for nothing.

How are we doing? We just beat Liverpool a little over a week ago, won the Trofeo Teresa Herrera last Wednesday (a match hosted by Deportivo La Coruna, in which we tied 1-1 and won on penalties to claim a giant ass trophy), and defeated a 3rd division team (oooooh!). We’re in a good position mentally, having won all that in the past ten days.

I’ll tell you this much: if you’ve seen us last season, you’ll know that we’re not messing around. The Champions League is serious business, and we proved to be serious contenders. Maybe our league season was shakey, but in the end we pulled off some amazing comebacks and results and we deserve to be playing at the highest tier of European football.

We are hungry. Maybe hungrier than Panathinaikos even.

The roster:

PORTEROS

1 Asenjo.
13 Roberto.

DEFENSAS

3 Antonio López.
5 Heitinga.
17 Ujfalusi.
31 Álvaro Domínguez.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.
16 Juanito.

CENTROCAMPISTAS

8 Raúl García.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
20 Simão.
23 Cléber Santana.
9 Jurado.
19 Reyes.

DELANTEROS

10 Agüero.
7 Forlán.
14 Sinama Pongolle.

-

Enjoy the game. Tomorrow is an important day!

Aupa Atleti!

<– Also, we don’t have to worry about that guy. Phew.

Great matchup? Check. Biggest game of the season? Check. Forlan and Kun bringing down “Brokebat Mountain”?* Check. Us snatching 4th? Check

I dare anybody to stop us.

You see, if Valencia faces the same Atlético squad that played against Barca, and Real Madrid (the second time), and Villarreal, they have no chance. There, I said it.

The motive that has given Atlético their best games of the season is playing big teams in big games. The only team we have lost to in the top 6 since Abel Resino took over was Sevilla, and that was when the team was still in shambles after Aguirre’s tenure. Tomorrow’s game will be big enough that the prize on the table is tempting enough to make the Atleti magic appear, where Forlan scores from 30 yards out and Aguero makes the opposition’s defenders trip on themselves.

The Valencia team that we face tomorrow won’t be as good as the Barcelona and Real Madrid that we faced a few months ago, but they’ll still be on fire. Since their win against Racing in late March, they’ve only tied once (Barca) and lost once (to Espanyol, seriously?) out of 8 games. That’s what I call perseverance. Too bad it may all be irrelevant tomorrow.

The only danger men that I’m aware of from Valencia is David Villa and Juan Mata, the team’s top scorers (25 and 11 goals respectively). Fortunately, there is no David Silva to take care of, as he ruined our team last time. I don’t need to remind you. (I’m secretly a fan of Joaquin as well).

Our attack is better, though. 27 and 16 goals for Forlan and Kun Aguero

We are without Heitinga and Perea, who are suspended (former through yellow cards and the latter through last week’s red card), so whoever takes over in the right will have Juan Mata on their hands. No Antonio Lopez either. Atlético B player César Ortiz has been called up but I’m not sure if he’ll take the right back position. I’m not the biggest fan of Pablo but he better have the game of his life, since him and Ujfalusi have David Villa to be most careful with. I also wouldn’t rule out an appearance by youngster Dominguez either.

What irritates me the most is not knowing which Atlético squad will show up tomorrow. Yes, I did mention that Atlético shows up to the big games, but you can never be too confident in a team that loses 2-4 to Osasuna at home (had to say it…). Either the hungry, fight-to-the-death version, or the version that loses at home to the likes of small clubs, will be present at the Calderon tomorrow. I’ll just hope that Forlan has a fire under his ass, then we will have nothing to worry about.

URUGUAYOOOO

This game will come down to which team’s defense sucks less. Since Valencia has Marchena out, I assume that it’s a disadvantage. Our defense should do fine, and I hope that we don’t miss Perea and Heitinga too much. We just have to have faith in whoever Abel decides to play in the center.

A tie would be somewhat acceptable, but still, God forbid. Although Valencia visits Villarreal away next weekend (and Villarreal has been doing great against them) that would still mean that we’d have to beat Athletic Bilbao away, who beat us last time. Ahh, stupid unpredictability. Whatever. Just win tomorrow and we’ll worry about Bilbao later.

Prediction: 3-2, Forlan man of the match with two goals, Aguero sealing the last goal. And two easy goals for Valencia in the first half.

PORTEROS
1 Coupet.
25 Leo Franco.

DEFENSAS
4 Pernía.
17 Ujfalusi.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.
28 Álvaro Domínguez.
34 César.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
8 Raúl García.
9 Luis García.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
16 Éver Banega.
19 Miguel de las Cuevas.
20 Simão.
24 Ignacio Camacho.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

Lineup prediction (a toughie):

Leo Franco; Pernia, Ujfalusi, Dominguez, Pablo; Maxi, Raul Garcia, Assunção, Simao; Forlan, Kun Aguero

*Thanks to Yevy from Dynamo Kiev Offside for that badass nickname.

This is the weekend to root for both Madrid teams. No, don’t go to the little girls section of your local plus size store to get your brand-spankin’ new Real Madrid jersey just yet, or ever. We only want Madrid to win so we can trump Valencia in the league standings and secure ourselves in a better position for when we face them next.

Now, it’s a bit disrespectful for me to wish a loss upon a great club like Valencia. They really do deserve to win this weekend but they are still our competition. In many ways, they are like us this season. Both teams are stacked enough to compete with the best, yet strange losses plague us and strange draws plague them. We’ve had many funks this season and so have they. So that one point advantage pretty much says that they’re better only by a hair.

Don’t get me wrong, I still hate Real Madrid more than anything, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Raul point on that stupid 7 on the back of his shirt at the Mestalla. Then again, seeing Villa or Mata down the merengues would also be sweet. Ahh screw it. If they draw, I’ll be happiest. Let’s leave it at that.

Oh, and Valencia are more than capable of beating Madrid. There.

Don’t count out any team that has David Villa.

Before anything, we must win the game against Espanyol in order to take advantage of any possible slip. I’ll say it now: if we can’t win this game, we can’t make the Champions League. On paper we could, assuming other results fall in our favor, but every game left must end in a victory, no exceptions. The hardest game left will be Valencia the following weekend. At this point, I can’t honestly tell you yet what will be at stake during that game until next week.

Espanyol

I miss the old Espanyol, the mid table version that could surprisingly hold their own against the likes of Real Madrid and other very good clubs. They still can, but they are obviously not as solid as before. This season, they spent 18 weeks in relegation zone, 18 weeks too many from a team that was this close to winning the UEFA Cup two years ago. They seem to have gotten back their groove, and are now in 14th place only 4 points away from the relegation zone. That means they also need all the points they can get from the remaining 4 games in the season, and they haven’t been slacking with trying to avoid the drop zone. They haven’t lost since the end of March, and that speaks volumes. They’ll enter the pitch on Sunday with full confidence that they can win.

The last time the teams met, we won 2-3 at the Montjuic in December and it was the last game before the holiday break (read Greg’s review here and watch those goals again). Oh how different things were back then. Atleti made 3rd place and Espanyol was in the gutters. Now it’s two teams actually fighting for something, and that alone will make this game more exciting.

Prediction: 2-1 victory for Atlético. Forlan is on fire and I don’t see him not scoring. Since the Santander loss (which still stings) the team is well aware that there is nothing to lose. They won’t play like chumps because they know that playing like ass will bite them in the culo. And the supporters will probably whistle them into 6th place and Europa League games against teams from Armenia.

Hala Aupa Atleti!

If you didn’t watch the first leg (I know you didn’t you jerks, don’t lie), Porto pretty much played us like fools and earned a well-deserved 2-2. Now they’re going into this match STILL undefeated since November and even hungrier to advance to the next round than we probably are.

And us… we had some good games against Barcelona and Madrid. We’re ready for you, Oporto.

Porto vs. Atlético: The Preview Parte Dos

If you want the dirty statistical information on both teams, just check out my first leg preview (Maniche still hasn’t decided on what to get on that KFC menu). Since our last match, Porto has tied 0-0 at home to Sporting the German Punching Bag, and defeated Leixoes 1-4. They’re one of the forgotten teams of Europe and are having an AZ Alkmaar style season with a really long and consistent string of wins since November like I previously mentioned.

At least they proved that they don’t always win at home with the draw against Sporting. In the last match, they didn’t outdo us but they matched us, and we played really well too. It’s a very even fixture and the styles of both teams are similar. Their attack is as deadly as ours, even if we have four wizards on the offense (Kun, Forlan, Simao, Maxi). Lisandro and Hulk (pfffft ahahaha) made Pablo and Ujo look like idiots.

How good are they at home? I’m not counting league results, but from Champions League results they’ve won twice (Fenerbahce and Arsenal) and lost once (Dynamo Kiev). The victory over Arsenal is the most impressive one, even though Arsenal was plagued with injuries during that match, they’re still Arsenal. And a reminder… Porto won their group. This team can’t be underestimated.

Porto can probably tell their keeper to put on his pouty face again and it’ll melt Atletico hearts, and it’ll make them vulnerable so they can score lots and lots of goals against us!

Atleti

If this were the day after the first leg, I’d be scared out of my mind for this match because of our team’s inconsistency. However – a big “however” in fact – I’d like to refresh your memory about the 4-3 over Barcelona and the crazy 1-1 away in the Madrid derby. If we can defeat Barcelona, then how hard should Porto be?

There’s only a small problem: Porto’s two away goals. That means that we absolutely need a victory tomorrow, or need to tie 3-3 or any bigger tie score line. Away victory possible? Damn right it is. Not only are we undefeated at home, we’re also undefeated away in the Champions League. 0-3 over a solid PSV team, and 1-1 to Liverpool (which we would have won if the ref weren’t a bastard). The 1-1 against Liverpool stands out the most, just because of the fact that we gave hell to the team that just buried our friends in white today 4 to f*ckin’ 0. I won’t mention the 0-0 against Marseille because that game just sucked in general.

We’ve shown up in big games this season many times. Why shouldn’t “Euro Atleti” show up tomorrow, on the biggest match of the season so far?

Resino: Hmm… what minute should I substitute Maxi Rodriguez this time?

PORTEROS
1 Coupet.
25 Leo Franco.

DEFENSAS
3 Antonio López.
4 Pernía.
5 Heitinga.
17 Ujfalusi.
21 Perea.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
8 Raúl García.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
18 Maniche.
19 Miguel de las Cuevas.
20 Simão.
24 Ignacio Camacho.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

The entire squad is available. I don’t know who the hell Resino is going to pick in the lineup, but here’s my predicted XI:

Leo Franco; Perea, Pablo Ibáñez, Captain Jack Sparrow, Antonio Lopez; Assuncao, Raul Garcia, Maxi, Simao; Kun, Forlan

Resino loves his Spanishness so he’ll probably bench Coupet and Heitinga. Jerk. But we love you.

Prediction: 3-3. This game will be crazy, folks. I expect an early goal, crazy comebacks, golazo’s, penalties, everything that makes Atletico games great. Try to have this match on a separate screen while you watch ManU vs. Inter or your preferred club’s match.

Atlético Madrid: Serious Business

P.S. AUPA TORRES!

Yeah, that’s it for the preview. I know I know, I’m sorry. Enjoy the matchday, everyone.

I could sit here and praise Barça all day, but I’m tired of them already. They’re at least fun to watch, and I respect the fact that they have so many youth products in their first team. They’re the “lesser of the evils” within the G14 because they’re not as money hungry as other teams.

I’m not going to go too into detail about Barcelona. Everyone knows by now…

-Watch out for Messi
-Eto’o likes to score
-Dani Alves plays as a striker when he plays a defender
-Rafa Marquez is a stud

I can’t stress enough how important this match is. We can look at its importance in three ways:

If Barcelona wins, it will be the fourth time they beat us this season, and three losses are already humiliating enough. Villarreal and Valencia may pick up points and will distance themselves further from us. On a positive note, Real Madrid’s chase to Barça will be delayed, which is good because we don’t want them to win.

If Atlético wins, we will be on Cloud 9. We will prove to everybody that we are truly a great team (which no one likes to believe) by defeating the first place team. Barca fans will start to get nervous and will type long analysis reports as if they are going through a crisis. Abel Resino will be hailed as a tactical genius (hah) and Enrique Cerezo will tell the press one more time that Kun Aguero is going nowhere. Also, the annoying smirk on Joan Laporta’s face will be wiped off for a few days.

If both teams draw, it will be a mixture of both previously-mentioned scenarios. Assuming Real Madrid wins at Espanyol (which I doubt), that will cut Barca’s lead to 5 points and their fans will type long analysis reports as if they are going through a crisis. Villarreal and Valencia may pick up points and will distance themselves further from us. Abel Resino will leave us waiting for more and our confidence won’t change a bit.

On the Atlético side of things…

One of the reasons that I don’t think Atlético will win tomorrow is because of Abel Resino. His “push players up” offensive approach only did wonders once, when we demolished Recreativo a few weeks ago, and since then the team still hasn’t improved much. Atlético absolutely cannot try to push any defender up since the wings are one of Barcelona’s strongest areas. No need to “park the bus” but just leave the offense to Simao and Maxi.

And please Abel, don’t substitute Kun Aguero early this time. If there’s anyone on the pitch that will be hungriest to win, it’ll be him. Who cares if baby Benjamin kept him up all night, play him play him play him.

Prediction: Barcelona win. No score prediction from me, but we’re a disaster waiting to happen (or has already happened) and Barcelona will try to bounce back after the Espanyol loss.

Roster:

PORTEROS
1 Coupet.
25 Leo Franco.

DEFENSAS
2 Seitaridis.
3 Antonio López.
5 Heitinga.
17 Ujfalusi.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
8 Raúl García.
11 Maxi Rodríguez.
12 Paulo Assunção.
16 Éver Banega.
18 Maniche.
19 Miguel de las Cuevas.
20 Simão.
24 Ignacio Camacho.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

If we’re lucky, we’ll see another newspaper front page that looks like this:

“i’m a barca fan, but…”

As Barcelona readers like to stop by this blog, “mi casa es tu casa” for this match. You can use this post as a comment box and say whatever you want. Have a seat on the couch, chips and drinks are on the table, and don’t mind that pretty lady that just walked out of the bathroom. I’ve never seen her before, I swear.

As I type this preview all while chewing on a Fruit Roll Up and cranking my “Now! That’s What I Call Music” collection through my headphones, I’m bothered by the fact that I really don’t know how tomorrow is going to turn out. It’s been a really long time since the last Champions League match, and our team has changed and underperformed so much that it’s difficult to make a prediction for the game. I’m just hoping that we can pull a Liverpool and play like there’s only one competition that matters, because this is the only trophy that we realistically have a chance of winning, and even then the chances aren’t too good.

What’s my point? I don’t really have one. I’ll just shut up and get on with the preview.

Atlético Madrid vs. FC Porto: The Preview. (Dun dun dunnnnnnn)

Easily one of the least-anticipated fixtures of the Round of 16. When you have clash of giants such as Man U vs Inter, Juve vs. Chelsea, etc, Atletico vs Porto doesn’t seem too appealing. Then again, I wouldn’t want it any other way, because I’m kind of glad, actually, extremely glad that we get to avoid those other group winner teams.

Is it rude to consider Porto a weak team? Yes, because they are far from being one. They are without a doubt a very talented team, oozing with Portuguese pride and South American flair. They’ve been very unfortunate ever since they won their last Champions League in 2004, only because they haven’t found a manager that could manage their resources as well as Mourinho could. They’re good enough to dominate the league standings but not to excel where it matters more. Their inability to go far into the competition is a bit relieving for Atleti.

They won their CL group, thanks to Arsenal’s inconsistency and the ease of the other teams (Dynamo Kiev and Fenerbahce). On paper, they are no slouches. They are also in first place in the Portuguese Liga (again) and are dying to go far into the Champions League again.

Here’s a rundown of how far they’ve gone since they last won the trophy:

04/05 – Round of 16, lost to Inter

05/06 – Group Stage, ended in last place of their group

06/07 – Round of 16, lost to Chelsea

07/08 – Round of 16, lost to Schalke on penalties

Yeah, I’d be annoyed if I were a Porto supporter. Reaching as far as the round of 16 must get irritating. Fortunately, they have easy competition this time around, right?

Wrong. The fixture is very close. Both teams have been hailed as being evenly-matched and to be honest, you can’t really make a prediction. Last year, Schalke was the team that knocked them out of the CL on penalties. They had the “easy draw” and still didn’t go through.

I absolutely hate using stats to make predictions, but I’ll still compare both teams’ performances:

League points:
Porto 41 (after 19 games)
Atlético 36 (after 24 games)

League position:
Porto 1st
Atlético 7th

Champions League group points:
Porto 12
Atlético 12

You can’t really tell much from these stats. Porto has squeezed more points out of less matches than Atlético has, which might have to do that the Portuguese league isn’t as good. Porto didn’t have to play teams as good as Sevilla, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Villarreal for 5 consecutive games (their true challenge comes from mini derbies with Sporting and Benfica). So basically, 1st place Portuguese team vs. 7th place Spanish team. That’s how it is.

As for Champions League results, they have both done just as good, tied at twelve points. I’d arguably say that Atlético has put on a better performance. Porto won 4 times and lost twice (0-1 to Dynamo and 4-0 to Arsenal). Atlético had as many points but they didn’t lose. They gave Liverpool a fight to remember (twice), and gave PSV and scuzzy Marseille a piece of their mind. Should we fear a team that has lost 4-0 in this competition?

Nope, we shouldn’t be afraid of Porto. We’re at home for this leg, and we haven’t lost at home so far into the competition. The results at home for us have been:

4-0 over Schalke (CL qualifying)
2-1 over Marseille
1-1 to Liverpool
2-1 to PSV

We may not prove it in the league, but the Vicente Calderon is absolutely lethal in matches like this. It’s a guarantee that the supporters will show up for the match and act as the twelfth man (idea that I borrowed from PSV, “De Twaalfde Man”). Therefore, I don’t expect a home loss for Atlético.

O Dragão

Porto, Porto, Porto
És a nossa glória
Dá-nos neste dia
Mais uma alegria
Mais uma vitória
Porto, Porto, Porto
És a nossa glória
Dá-nos neste dia
Mais uma alegria
Mais uma vitória

“Great club” is the best way that I can describe Porto. They have very very strong support and they aren’t one of the biggest clubs in Portugal for nothing. They are on a good streak. What am I saying, they’re on an excellent streak. They haven’t lost in any competition since November 1st, to “Naval 1º Maio”. Goddamn.

Like I mentioned before, they have talent up the ass. The captain, Lucho Gonzalez, is a player that makes a real difference in the game. He leads the midfield, circulates the ball well, and scores often as well (tied for top goalscorer). I think he’ll be key for Porto tomorrow.

They also have a striker named “Hulk”. Hulk. That’s what Givanildo Vieira de Souza goes by, and I can’t deny that I laughed and skimmed the Porto roster for an “Iron Man” or “Spiderman”. The other striker, Lisandro Lopez, is also a danger in the box. Both strikers have 12 goals in the league, as many as Diego Forlan has alone.

As for their defense, their standout is center-back Bruno Alves, who has made the most appearances out of any of the defenders, and is a member of the Portugal national team. Porto has conceded 8 goals in the Liga and 8 goals in the Champions League. Seems to me like they’re more vulnerable in Europe than in domestic competition.

Atlético, How You Break My Heart

Oh man, where do I start to talk about my beloved colchoneros?

<— Yes, that’s a still of Forlan’s amazing miss against Sevilla

I can easily say that no other team in Spain has done so little this season with so much talent. Ever since Aguirre got sacked after a string of draws and losses, we thought that hiring Resino, a man of the club, would be the solution to our troubles. It still could be, but so far we’ve won, lost, and drawn twice under him. Still too early to judge the man, because he could lead the team to great things of he obviously plays his cards right.

What was so great about Aguirre’s Atlético was their absolutely dominance in the Champions League. I’ve compared our team to Liverpool often, because we haulled ass in the CL but aren’t doing that good in the league. The Atlético of the Champions League has been a real danger. We were the 4th seeded team in the group, and on the opening match of the group stage, we thrashed the defensive-minded Dutch champions 0-3. I haven’t seen the team play with as much balls since, but that was a different team with a different mentality and coach. I can’t comment on how Resino’s Atlético will fair tomorrow, but I do expect to see a fight.

Our league form is absolute crap, with 1 win, 4 losses, and 3 draws in the last 8 matches. We deserved more against Sevilla on Saturday and that 1-0 loss made us 8 points from 3rd place. The race for the Champions League spots is very tight, because when one team slips, the others seem to slip as well. In this case, our direct rivals for 4th place are Valencia and Villarreal (maybe Deportivo), who have succumbed to silly mistakes so far into the season. This battle for 4th place is driving me nuts, because no one team can just be consistent and snatch that place. All the better for us.

This fixture will be a trip down memory lane for Maniche and Assuncao, who were both Porto players. Maniche won everything at Porto and after moving to Russia, then England, then Spain, then Italy, then Spain again, he’s settled again. Assuncao, the manhated by the Porto supporters, will secretly be hoping for a big “F YOU” to the supporters that made the end of his Porto career hell.

Maniche is either excited for tomorrow’s match, or weighing his options between all items on the KFC menu

Let’s throw that bad league streak aside and win this match, so I can stop pouting and see Atleti get rolling again.

Prediction: 2-0 to Atlético

Probable lineups:

Roster currently unavailable… (will be updated)

Watching: ESPN360.com and Justin.tv . I’m going to have to look hard for a stream. Livefooty also works.

Europa nos tiene que oir. Europe must hear us.

AUPA ATLETI!

———-

Follow Atlético Al on Twitter

Resino acknowledged that he saw that the team was a bit tired out and that they were definitely to blame for the sacking of Aguirre. At least he knows that the first step towards recovery is to make the team not suck anymore.

Atlético goes by the saying “new coach, secure victory” every time a new manager steps in, and hopefully that saying is true considering that the team hasn’t won at Recreativo in four years.

I wasn’t kidding when I said that Resino is a manager that loves offense. During training, Resino positioned the sidebacks a few meters forward and they will be encouraged to run down the flanks. Antonio Lopez (or Pernia) and Luis Perea will be the likely sidebacks that will play in the match against Huelva, with Heitinga and Ujfalusi remaining in the center.

Resino also hinted that a couple of the fixed starters will remain unchanged from his lineup, with Aguero, Forlan and Maniche in their natural positions. Since Simao is out, Miguel or Sinama will be covering the left wing and Banega may play more up front in Maxi’s position. One of Resino’s tasks will be to squeeze the best out of these offensive players, especially Kun who seems to have forgotten how to score since father-in-law Maradona visited Madrid.

Here’s a neat diagram with the formations:

Here’s the roster, sans Maxi (yellow card suspension), Luis Garcia and Simao (injuries):

PORTEROS
1 Coupet.
25 Leo Franco.

DEFENSAS
2 Seitaridis.
3 Antonio López.
4 Pernía.
5 Heitinga.
17 Ujfalusi.
21 Perea.
22 Pablo Ibáñez.

CENTROCAMPISTAS
8 Raúl García.
12 Paulo Assunção.
16 Éver Banega.
18 Maniche.
19 Miguel de las Cuevas.
24 Ignacio Camacho.

DELANTEROS
7 Forlán.
10 Kun Agüero.
14 Sinama-Pongolle.

So that’s my short but sweet preview, due to me concentrating on my Mexico WCB duties and my excessive spending of USMNT voodoo dolls. Aupa!